Vote Like Your Money Depends on It

Nine months ago, when I wrote If McCain Wins, So Could These Funds, Sen. John McCain was locking up the Republican Party nomination. Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 22% of its value while the Nasdaq 100 has tumbled 24.5%.

Two of my three McCain fund picks did worse than the market, with Fidelity Select Defense and Aerospace (FSDAX Quote) off 31%, and PowerShares Aerospace & Defense (PPA Quote) down 30.59%. A surprise victory by McCain could put stock holdings of Honeywell (HON Quote), minus 46.6%; Lockheed Martin (LMT Quote), down 18.7%; Boeing (BA Quote), a decline of 33.2%; and General Dynamics (GD Quote), a drop of 26.7%, back in favor.

The one McCain pick to outperform the market, falling just 1.81% since early February, was the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI Quote). Back on Feb. 8, McCain had yet to select a running mate. Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge recently explained that McCain could be winning Pennsylvania if McCain had selected him.

Instead, McCain, needing to energize the Republican base, selected Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. While this has excited right-wing social-values voters, a Vice President Palin might do the "mavericky" thing and work to defeat the support of cutting edge, scientific companies. So, in a McCain victory, SPDR S&P Biotech is now off the list, but the defense funds remain.

Also since February, when I selected Funds That Could Profit From Clinton, Obama in Office, the bullish picks for Sen. Barack Obama of PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW Quote) fizzled 54.5% and PowerShares Dynamic Building & Construction (PKB Quote) crumbled 36.7%.

Likewise, my bearish picks of iShares Dow Jones U.S. Insurance Index Fund (IAK Quote) crashed 47.4% and SPDR Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH Quote) shrank 14.5%. While the bullish picks have been trashed so far, they are well-positioned to catch a rebound in the first half of 2009 if Obama gets sworn in on Jan. 20.