United Has High Hopes for New O'Hare Runway

"O'Hare is our largest hub, and we maintain that with the new runway online, we will see a significant improvement in operational performance," says United spokeswoman Megan McCarthy. However, Bob Cordes, American's vice president of operations planning, says the operational benefit "will not be anywhere near the improvement that Atlanta saw" because of the FAA action.

"If you build a bag to hold 10 pounds, and you put 10 pounds in it, you just don't have any buffer [for weather]," Cordes says. "We saw a bigger bag in Atlanta, and they didn't fill it up. But here, it will probably be filled, so reliability is not going to improve."

Cordes said an analysis, prepared early this year by American and United, showed that in 2005, Atlanta's airport had 89 hourly daytime arrivals, or close to 100% of its capacity. With the new runway, capacity expanded to 115 hourly arrivals, while demand expanded modestly, enabling the airport to operate at 81% of capacity and driving operational improvement.

By contrast, he said, O'Hare operates today at about 98% of capacity, with 89 hourly arrivals. The new runway will increase capacity modestly. If arrivals remain constant, the airport would operate at 93% of capacity. But with caps ending, "we don't know what will happen to demand," Cordes says. Both hub carriers plan winter flight reductions.

"With capacity reductions, we anticipate seeing improved performance," said United's McCarthy.

Meanwhile, FAA spokesman Tony Molinaro says the new runway represents an incremental step in the planned O'Hare expansion. "This small 7,500 foot runway will help a little," he says. "But it's just a start. It's the easiest one to add, because it's away from the others."