Amazon's Holiday Outlook Difficult to Fathom

He pointed out that in order for Amazon to hit the low end of its range of 6% growth, organic revenue growth in the U.S. and internationally would have to slow to a 10% increase compared to a year ago, "which we estimate implies a retail environment that is unlike any we have seen for at least the past 30 to 50 years."

The high end of Amazon's guidance implies an organic growth rate of roughly 28% year-over-year, "which seems even more unlikely given weakening trends in September and into October."