The following post appeared at 5:25 a.m. EDT on RealMoney. Sign up for a free trial of RealMoney, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.
In the end, I was too bullish. I didn't think things would get so bad that they would sell what they could sell because they couldn't sell anything else. And that's what happened to the soft-goods components of the
Dow Jones Industrial Average.
If you remember my Dow 8400 crash scenario last month I put drastic but realistic price tags on a host of companies - including zero for
General Motors(GM Quote - Cramer on GM - Stock Picks) (prescient, I guess). But I did not think that
Johnson & Johnson(JNJ Quote - Cramer on JNJ - Stock Picks),
Coca-Cola(KO Quote - Cramer on KO - Stock Picks),
Procter & Gamble(PG Quote - Cramer on PG - Stock Picks), and
Kraft Goods (KFT Quote - Cramer on KFT - Stock Picks) could be so easily annihilated.
My bad.
I am working on some new downside targets, but it is obvious now that we could be taking that soft-good fortress to levels that look ridiculously cheap, and will probably be ridiculously cheap, at the end of this crash.
Unlike the others, though, they are self-financing and in the end this is a selloff rooted in anything that needs financing, and if it doesn't, it just might stop down 10% from here.
Here's the reprise of the piece:
Let's run through the Dow 30:
1.
Caterpillar(CAT Quote - Cramer on CAT - Stock Picks) can retreat back to $43 where it started both before the housing boom and before the energy boom and before BRIC became a dominant force. All of its markets will be challenged with housing downturns worldwide and energy prices retreating from highs, something that I think will happen as economies slow.
2.
Citigroup(C Quote - Cramer on C - Stock Picks) -- $14. This is where it traded before the short-selling rules were created on July 15, and this is where it is going without a financing and a big investment. It might not stop there if there is no relief at all. I am really bearish on this stock without a plan.
3.
Du Pont(DD Quote - Cramer on DD - Stock Picks) has a lot of businesses that are less cyclical than people think and a safe dividend. I would be surprised if it went much below $40, where I would like to buy it.
Jim Cramer
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