Cramer: I Was Too Bullish
The following post appeared at 5:25 a.m. EDT on RealMoney. Sign up for a free trial of RealMoney, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.
In the end, I was too bullish. I didn't think things would get so bad that they would sell what they could sell because they couldn't sell anything else. And that's what happened to the soft-goods components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If you remember my Dow 8400 crash scenario last month I put drastic but realistic price tags on a host of companies - including zero for General Motors(GM Quote) (prescient, I guess). But I did not think that Johnson & Johnson(JNJ Quote), Coca-Cola(KO Quote), Procter & Gamble(PG Quote), and Kraft Goods (KFT Quote) could be so easily annihilated. My bad. I am working on some new downside targets, but it is obvious now that we could be taking that soft-good fortress to levels that look ridiculously cheap, and will probably be ridiculously cheap, at the end of this crash. Unlike the others, though, they are self-financing and in the end this is a selloff rooted in anything that needs financing, and if it doesn't, it just might stop down 10% from here. Here's the reprise of the piece: Let's run through the Dow 30: 1. Caterpillar(CAT Quote) can retreat back to $43 where it started both before the housing boom and before the energy boom and before BRIC became a dominant force. All of its markets will be challenged with housing downturns worldwide and energy prices retreating from highs, something that I think will happen as economies slow. 2. Citigroup(C Quote) -- $14. This is where it traded before the short-selling rules were created on July 15, and this is where it is going without a financing and a big investment. It might not stop there if there is no relief at all. I am really bearish on this stock without a plan. 3. Du Pont(DD Quote) has a lot of businesses that are less cyclical than people think and a safe dividend. I would be surprised if it went much below $40, where I would like to buy it.- Loading Comments...
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