Cramer: I Was Too Bullish

The following post appeared at 5:25 a.m. EDT on RealMoney. Sign up for a free trial of RealMoney, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.

In the end, I was too bullish. I didn't think things would get so bad that they would sell what they could sell because they couldn't sell anything else. And that's what happened to the soft-goods components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

If you remember my Dow 8400 crash scenario last month I put drastic but realistic price tags on a host of companies - including zero for General Motors(GM) (prescient, I guess). But I did not think that Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), Coca-Cola(KO), Procter & Gamble(PG), and Kraft Goods (KFT) could be so easily annihilated.

My bad.

I am working on some new downside targets, but it is obvious now that we could be taking that soft-good fortress to levels that look ridiculously cheap, and will probably be ridiculously cheap, at the end of this crash.

Unlike the others, though, they are self-financing and in the end this is a selloff rooted in anything that needs financing, and if it doesn't, it just might stop down 10% from here.

Here's the reprise of the piece:

Let's run through the Dow 30:

1. Caterpillar(CAT) can retreat back to $43 where it started both before the housing boom and before the energy boom and before BRIC became a dominant force. All of its markets will be challenged with housing downturns worldwide and energy prices retreating from highs, something that I think will happen as economies slow.

2. Citigroup(C) -- $14. This is where it traded before the short-selling rules were created on July 15, and this is where it is going without a financing and a big investment. It might not stop there if there is no relief at all. I am really bearish on this stock without a plan.

3. Du Pont(DD) has a lot of businesses that are less cyclical than people think and a safe dividend. I would be surprised if it went much below $40, where I would like to buy it.