Dendreon's Got Miles to Go With Provenge

To go back to my marathon analogy, the runner who entered the stadium first is suffering from bad muscle cramps, while the guy in second place looks great and has a strong finishing kick. The winner is still anyone's guess.

Perhaps the most reasonable outcome to expect from the Provenge study next year is an equivocal result. Let's say Provenge produces some survival benefit for prostate cancer patients compared with a placebo (say an 18%-20% reduction in the risk of death), but that's not enough to reach the level of statistical significance. Technically, the study fails, but there is still evidence that Provenge is benefiting patients.

This is exactly what happened in 2007, the last time Dendreon sought FDA approval for Provenge. The turmoil, volatility and controversy resulting from that mess isn't something most investors will soon forget.

Déjà vu?