OPINION: McCain's Wild Poll Ride

Sen. John McCain's (R., Ariz.) campaign gained huge momentum coming out of the Republican National Convention one month ago. At the time, his new running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, captured the imagination of the base and ignited interest from female voters across the nation. Polls at the second week of September showed McCain and Sen. Barack Obama (D., Ill.) at a tie. Some polls even had McCain in the lead.

McCain's turnaround was punctuated by his taking the lead in Internet betting on the presidential race at InTrade.com. Bettors had run his chances from the low-30 percentiles to well above 50%. However, the turnaround has all but evaporated heading into the second week of October with Obama retaking an 8-point lead in several national polls.

Can McCain recover from this deficit in the same fashion he did a month ago and win the race?

The McCain campaign had a two-pronged strategy heading into August to reduce Obama's lead in the polls. First, it hit Obama with negative attack ads meant to question his qualifications and raise doubts about his ability to govern. Obama faced attacks on his "celebrity" status and his ability to perform as commander in chief.

McCain's numbers started to rally in polls with the plethora of punches at Obama's character and record. More important, the Obama campaign struggled on the defensive in the month of August as it remained focused on preparation for the Democratic National Convention.

The DNC offered the Obama campaign an opportunity to paint McCain as four more years of President Bush. Obama recovered somewhat in the polls after those efforts at the DNC.