Cramer: Worst Case? Dow Under 8400

Without the Paulson plan, or if the plan is so watered down and delayed, I have been saying all bets are off and we could be in for a huge swoon. How huge?

I like to sit down and noodle on the actual components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to give you a real sense of what can go wrong. And there is so much going wrong. The credit markets are vanishing, the earnings are vanishing and the only hope is a plan that ignites credit markets, forces money off the sidelines and gets this economy and the worldwide economy moving again.

Not long ago, I postulated that this market is literally repealing all of the moves since the Brazil-Russia-India-China emergence that gave us better markets to sell into than just the U.S. With the collapse of Chinese growth -- they have simply ceased to be importers since the summer -- the inflation in India, the war in Russia and a U.S.-led slowdown in Brazil (although that remains a robust market) BRIC is more like having a brick around your neck than a wind at your back.

Meanwhile, the peak in energy and the collapse of the financial system have left both of those groups in disarray with valuations simply too difficult to pin down, so you retreat to worst-case scenarios where you can at least find some terra firma -- mainly where stocks were last time things were this bad.

Cramer: Dow's Most Bearish Scenario

Given that most of these companies bought back stock at high prices and issued stock to executives, the actual value of the buybacks seems almost nonexistent, so the value that was created since those hard times is hard to see.

Finally, in a recession like we are having, one can only guess how badly the consumer will be scalded. This list of prices is about a scalded consumer.

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