Bailout Doesn't Offer Market Clear Direction
"If the market thought the government would not be able to pay back its debts, it would show up in rates," says Glassman. "These are risk-free assets and they're backed by the good faith of the government, which will never default on its debt. The Treasury secretary would rather go to jail than to make that happen."
Still, Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., notes that credit spreads have widened sharply, with the market pricing in far more risk for U.S. government and agency debt. Another "key gauge," he says, is the dollar's value, which dropped sharply against the euro, pound and yen on Monday. But looking ahead, Crescenzi says the bailout plan will ultimately help investors of all stripes. "In general, I see tighter credit spreads, higher Treasury yields, and higher equities prices as time goes on," he says. "It will take time, though, as there will remain lingering anxieties evident in the pricing of risk assets such as corporate equities and corporate bonds, reflecting uncertainties about the economy and the impact of the government bailout." Many investors still consider Treasuries to be the safest investment, especially in light of how far-flung economic problems have become. Europe, Russia and Asia have been struggling with issues that stem from the U.S. crisis, and are faring worse in certain respects. With a volatile market for equities, commodities and foreign exchange, Treasuries may prove to be the best bet. "Investors are going to take their money out of riskier assets and put it into the Treasury," says Vinny Catalano, chief investment strategist at Blue Marble Research. "There's a belief at the end of the day that the U.S. government is still going to be standing and those assets are safer than everything else."- Loading Comments...
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