Bailout Doesn't Offer Market Clear Direction

Investors on Monday began to digest some unfortunate news: Despite the Treasury's proposed $700 billion Wall Street bailout, the hefty price tag does not guarantee a clear direction for either the bond or the equities market.

The Treasury has outlined a plan to issue up to $700 billion worth of new debt to finance the purchase of troubled loans from U.S. banks. But many questions remain about the bailout, which has no historical parallel in size or scope, and whose details have not yet been fully hammered out.

The stock market moved quickly back to panic from relief on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average giving up nearly half the gains it had recorded since the Treasury's plan first surfaced. Treasury yields have swung wildly since the plan was announced, as investors considered several issues, including basic supply and demand fundamentals and the rising -- albeit still highly unlikely -- chance of T-bill default.

A huge amount of government bonds will be auctioned in coming months to support the bailout plan, as well as the earlier recues of Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and American International Group (AIG). The flood of issuances, along with the government's moves to take on the banking industry's riskiest assets, could drive yields higher. On the other hand, if the year-long flight to safety and predictions of further economic strife are any indication, robust demand may keep rates relatively low.

James Glassman, senior economist at JPMorgan Chase predicts there will be no material effect on the Treasury market.