Opportunity in Chaos

At moments like this, you have to figure out what will be affected and what won't be, and you need to recognize that the interrelation of all stocks to these events is a false one.

There is no doubt that anything mortgage is troubled. So even though I like Wells Fargo (WFC Quote - Cramer on WFC - Stock Picks) a great deal, it is unlikely that WFC can stay anywhere near up here now that Lehman (LEH Quote - Cramer on LEH - Stock Picks) collapsed. I don't want to hazard a guess, because it would be a guess, about where that stock can trade. Obviously it is a buy at some price, but that's a difficult issue.

Stocks like Schwab (SCHW Quote - Cramer on SCHW - Stock Picks) and Capital One (COF Quote - Cramer on COF - Stock Picks) are difficult to figure out, too. Schwab has nothing to do with this mess, but maybe trading will slow. People might look at the numbers Capital One put out about defaults, and while they seem pretty darned good, does anyone care? That stock had been on a rampage; probably stops today.

But how about the stocks on the Nasdaq? The Nazz futures are indicating down huge. Does that make sense? Just because it is happening, does that make sense? Symantec (SYMC Quote - Cramer on SYMC - Stock Picks), positive article this weekend -- a buy? If the futures take it down, yes. Amgen (AMGN Quote - Cramer on AMGN - Stock Picks) with new data coming up? Yes. Celgene (CELG Quote - Cramer on CELG - Stock Picks), which wouldn't come down last week? Yes.

For the same reason we have to worry about Lehman ripples, we have to worry about lots of stocks of companies caught up in the wake of derivatives. The derivatives are more powerful than the stocks they encompass -- Nasdaq or S&P futures -- but they are not more powerful than the companies themselves. Genzyme (GENZ Quote - Cramer on GENZ - Stock Picks), Gilead (GILD Quote - Cramer on GILD - Stock Picks), Hologic (HOLX Quote - Cramer on HOLX - Stock Picks), Starbucks (SBUX Quote - Cramer on SBUX - Stock Picks), they will all get killed. Is that right? I don't think so.

Meanwhile, oil is still not stopping despite the weakness in the dollar (always an overrated correlative to oil) and China cutting rates. Here's a market that is so sick that you have to go back to the consumers of oil again today to find ways to make money. Look for the S&P 500 futures to take down Procter (PG Quote - Cramer on PG - Stock Picks) and Colgate (CL Quote - Cramer on CL - Stock Picks) and General Mills (GIS Quote - Cramer on GIS - Stock Picks), and don't think, "Oh my, are they expensive." Think, "Hmmm, that could be opportunity." Or how about the retailers that will benefit from the big storm damage, Wal-Mart (WMT Quote - Cramer on WMT - Stock Picks) or Lowe's (LOW Quote - Cramer on LOW - Stock Picks)? I know I'm working on that now for Action Alerts PLUS. Opportunity in chaos.

You have to think like this. Otherwise you have to say, "OK, it's all over and I am done." Because moments like this are where fortunes are made and lost and if there is one to be made, you want it.

Random musings: Amazing call by Doug to buy Merrill (MER Quote - Cramer on MER - Stock Picks) on Friday. ... AIG (AIG Quote - Cramer on AIG - Stock Picks) is following Lehman on the hubris train, as there was plenty there but they were frozen.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Wal-Mart, General Mills, Procter & Gamble, Gilead and Celgene.