Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

It's not just copper. Vale (RIO Quote) (or RIO, as we know it) started at $7 and traded as high as $44. If we retreat to that level, RIO's obviously a tremendous short.

U.S. Steel's (X Quote) representative, too. It launched its fabled move from April 2005 at $49 and rallied to $193. Another great short if the move gets repealed.

On the other hand, Alcoa (AA Quote) -- a terribly managed company -- makes for a terrible short: It's where it started after round-tripping from $47. As a potential forecaster of the group, though, it would be deadly.

Oil and gas would also be amazing shorts: Schlumberger (SLB Quote) took off from $34 and traded as high as $112. Did it create any value here? I thought it did, but maybe not 3 or 4 -- perhaps 2 times, slightly more than the amount oil has increased? Call it $70, and you still have a good short.

Exxon (XOM Quote) and Chevron (CVX Quote) have been terrible performers of late, but you would still short them down to $59 and $52 if you repealed the move. Again, with oil up almost twice what it was back then, it seems a little ridiculous not to have seen an increase in value at all, but that's not what the bears would say is in store for us.

The truly great short would be Apache (APA Quote) and its ilk. Apache's discovered a huge amount of natural gas, but natural gas has been flat for the period, so roll back more than 50% to $59. Is there any wonder the stock's been under a monster amount of pressure?

The flip side is the chemical business -- giant user of natural gas -- and here, using this methodology, you are safe: Dow (DOW Quote) was at $49 and Du Pont (DD Quote) at $44. Stable with dividends and big declines in raw costs? Bad shorts.