Thin-Film Solar Set to Take Market Share

All together, Grama and Bradford expect only eight of 144 firms to reach "significant production" -- defined as more than 25 megawatts of production -- this year, increasing to around 30 companies by 2010.

Prometheus expects the sector to continue to hold its advantage with projected costs of less than 70 cents per watt. Such costs would enable a price of $1.40 per watt or less with a 50 percent gross margin, according to the report.

Meanwhile, the authors forecast that traditional crystalline-silicon wafer, cell and panel makers could see gross margins of less than 15 percent in some situations.