Thin-Film Solar Set to Take Market Share

While many companies already are entering the amorphous-silicon arena, the ramp time and output of amorphous-silicon lines has been "somewhat less robust" than originally expected so far, they wrote. "The ramp delays should be temporary however, and amorphous silicon is expected to make dramatic gains in production over the next couple years."

About 53 percent of thin-film companies are pursuing amorphous silicon, wrote Grama and Bradford, who expect amorphous-silicon films to make up half of the total thin-film production by 2010 and the majority of the production after that.

They expect cadmium telluride, which had the highest production in 2007, to remain the most common thin film to be produced this year before being overtaken by amorphous silicon. Cadmium-telluride films, which have been popularized by No. 1 thin-film manufacturer First Solar (FSLR Quote), will end up as a niche technology adopted by only a few companies, they wrote, although First Solar will remain a significant player in the industry.

Meanwhile, copper-indium-gallium-diselenide technologies -- also known as CIGS -- "[remain] the most exciting, but also the most elusive," according to the report. Grama and Bradford predict that 2009 will be a breakout year for the technologies, adding that some might be able to expand quickly enough to meet or beat First Solar's cost and performance targets by 2011.

According to the report, First Solar will remain the largest thin-film manufacturer in 2010 with an estimated 1 gigawatt of production of cadmium telluride.

The authors expect the company to be followed by Sharp Corp., with 416 megawatts of estimated production of amorphous silicon; United Solar, with 254 megawatts of estimated production or amorphous silicon; Nanosolar, with 249 megawatts of estimated production of CIGS, and Miasolé, with 178 megawatts of estimated production of CIGS.