Thin-Film Solar Set to Take Market Share

Written by Jennifer Kho

Thin-film solar production is expected to double in each of the next three years to reach 4.18 gigawatts worth of equipment in 2010, according to a report by Greentech Media and the Prometheus Institute.

"The thin-film [photovoltaics] sector is going to make a major impact on the overall growth of the PV industry in the next five years," wrote authors Sorin Grama and Travis Bradford, both of the Prometheus Institute. "It will change the economics to customers, trigger a more competitive landscape for all solar-energy technologies and force capital markets to assess and adapt yet again to a changing solar landscape."

The forecast represents a 65 percent increase from the companies' previous projection 18 months ago, according to the report. The authors also forecast that production will continue to grow, reaching almost 10 gigawatts in 2012.

The projections are based on a survey of 137 companies. According to the report, at least 143 companies were participating in thin-film solar as of July, with nearly 40 companies entering the space in 2007 and an additional 23 companies joining the movement in the beginning of this year. This implies that nonparticipating companies, as well as new companies yet to enter the field, could end up pushing the numbers even higher.

Most of the new companies are developing amorphous-silicon films on glass, which Prometheus said has the lowest barriers to entry because companies can buy "turnkey" manufacturing equipment from suppliers such as Applied Materials and Oerlikon.