Activist: GeoEye's Seeing Things My Way

The bottom line is that GeoEye has listened to its critics and taken action to address many of the criticisms. Management needs to go further in some areas, but they deserve credit for what they've done to date. As an investor, I feel much more confident in this company's prospects based on my interactions with management and seeing them make some progress against these weak points.

GeoEye's biggest weak point remains communicating its powerful story to investors. It can't rely on its CTO to explain its competitive advantages to Wall Street. This is the job of the CEO and CFO, and they've only improved from a "C-" to a "C+" on their communication skills in the last three months.

All eyes are now on the Sept. 4 launch of GeoEye-1. The company needs to continue to actively communicate with investors on the day of and the day following the launch. The launch team has a 98% success rate over the last 150 launches. After launch, the company will perform tests to ensure everything is working correctly, and its largest customer, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, will sign off that everything looks good at the end of October. That sign-off will allow the agency to agree to a new service-level agreement with GeoEye to buy images in the quarter ahead. Other customers will likely follow.

The launch should therefore have a large catalyst effect on the stock price. A more reasonable valuation for the stock would be 12 times next year's earnings, or triple its current price. It might take a few quarters to get there, but patience and activism are likely to be rewarded.

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