Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

My evidence doesn't say that things are going to roar. I believe that Fannie and Freddie will have to be bailed out by the federal government and the common will get crushed, contrary to what the regulators are saying. I think Fannie's numbers today are much worse than should be allowed, and the common should be confiscated this afternoon -- the heck with the shareholders. Both FNM and FRE common shareholders should be given 10% of NewCo, with the government getting 90%, so we can benefit from the comeback. FNM and FRE are both worthless right now; I am not one who defends them. I think they are worse minus 10 or something, but stocks stop at zero.

I do believe that Washington Mutual doesn't have enough money to get by, and I would be more emphatic if it weren't for that lawsuit against Dick Bove meant to silence hard-working critics. I do believe that AIG will have to do a $15 billion to $20 billion in-the-hole financing to get out of this period, and I think that management should be investigated for alleged fraud. I don't believe GM (GM Quote) or Ford (F Quote) common shareholders will have anything more than Sirius (SIRI Quote) shareholders have in the end. Their common is worthless, too, that's how bad the obligations, the car models, the leasing, the gas mileage, the legacy contracts and the unions are.

I do believe that housing will not bottom until the end of 2009, and that most houses will still have to fall 20% to where buyers are if the patterns of the bottom in Stockton and Bradenton are followed. I do think that one or two of the major homebuilders will go under, but it hasn't happened yet, and their balance sheets are improving, so this is looking too bearish. As you can see from Beazer (BZH Quote) this morning, the public guys keep being able to skate.

Is that negative for you? How about this? I think Citigroup needs to sell 500 million shares at $10, eliminate the dividend and then issue $10 billion in preferred on top of that. And that's just to stay in business. BUT IT WILL.

I am simply saying that despite all of those negatives, I do not believe we will take out the July lows, because we should have by now -- we haven't. Instead, we have seen commodities collapse, inflation dwindle, the Fed have the ability to cut if it wants to now, a Merrill Lynch (MER Quote) rebalancing of its books so it will make it, a stabilization of the endless run on Lehman so it can breathe, and a plan to be able to get out of auction rate hell.

Again, I hate the market. I hate that it can be up 300 one day and down 200 the next. I despise it, don't trust it, think it is phony on up days and would like most days to be 100% short because I hate it so much.