Forget the Polls, McCain Is Struggling

Several polls coming out this week show the general election contest between Sen. Barack Obama (D., Ill.) and Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.) as a very tight race, possibly a statistical tie: Gallup has Obama leading 46% to 43% and Rasmussen has Obama 47% to 46%. Word to the wise -- the early reading is worthless.

Want a relevant indicator? The only important poll right now relates to the direction of our country. In June, the AP-Ipsos poll measured the sentiment of the country and found that only 17 percent of the country believed America to be on the right track. The number hit an all-time low. Americans are clearly sounding a great desire for change. This is bad news for McCain and the GOP.

Despite the heavy media coverage of Democratic disunity in the spring, McCain and the Republicans face much more difficult challenges. The GOP has been losing members and lagging in fund-raising for the last several years. An upset in the race remains a long shot for the party.

McCain has moved from being a maverick in 2000 on certain issues like campaign finance, ethics reform and tax cuts to espousing fully the agenda put forward by President George Bush in 2008. His failure to demonstrate consistency has made him the reluctant choice of the party.

In fact, McCain only edges away from Bush on marginal issues. He has called for a summer holiday cut for gas taxes, removal of Russia from the G-8, and a league of democracies excluding China and Russia. These suggestions are impractical and without a future.