Coming Week: Don't Expect Fireworks

Aside from Alcoa and fellow Dow component General Electric(GE Quote), which reports its second-quarter results on Friday, next week's earnings calendar is light. GE in April lowered its 2009 earnings outlook from $2.42 a share to between $2.20 and $2.30 a share.

The run-up in oil prices has hit any number of companies. Airlines could lose $6.5 billion this year, Calyon Securities's Ray Neidl said in a research note Thursday. And perhaps no businesses have been more impacted by the record crude prices than Detroit's Ford(F Quote) and General Motors(GM Quote), which have been forced to alter their product line-ups and production schedules to meet consumers' demands for better fuel efficiency.

GM took a particularly brutal beating last week, as a Merrill Lynch analyst said a bankruptcy filing was "not impossible" if the market continued to deteriorate. The stock plunged below $10 for the first time in more than 54 years Wednesday in response, and investors will surely be monitoring that situation coming out of the long weekend.

"Clearly they have very big problems," Gault says.

Expect bearish analyst outlooks for the financial sector to continue to roll out ahead of a run of earnings reports from banks in the week of July 14. Merrill Lynch(MER Quote) reports July 17 and Citigroup(C Quote) reports July 18, and both banks have been subject to numerous predictions of writedowns and losses tied to their exposure to downgraded bond insurers MBIA(MBI Quote) and Ambac Financial(ABK Quote).

On Thursday, Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on a proposed overhaul of markets regulation. Paulson continued to push the cause last Wednesday, saying the near collapse of Bear Stearns in March, when it was bought in a fire sale by JPMorgan Chase(JPM Quote) with help from the Fed, stressed the importance of moving quickly to address the failure of a major investment bank.

The week ahead is not heavy on meaningful economic data, but there are a few data points people will be watching.

Pending home sales are reported Tuesday, and Gault says he is interested to see if last month's gains can continue, which would be a positive signal for the economy.

On Thursday, he notes, June chain-store sales will provide an interesting companion to the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. With consumer confidence dropping, chain-store sales could provide clues as to whether consumers are still spending their stimulus checks, he says.

1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish Bearish Neutral 2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities 3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities View the results without voting