Biotech-Stock Mailbag: Amgen, MiddleBrook

Either way, Introgen loses. In that way, the story remains very much the same as it's been for the past four years.

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Lastly, an update on SuperGen (SUPG Quote), which was featured in my May 3 Mailbag:

The European study of its cancer drug Dacogen in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), a cancer-like disease of the bone marrow, did not produce a survival benefit. The study failed. A negative outcome was not necessarily unexpected, but the press release didn't give any indication that Dacogen produced even a positive trend toward better survival, and that is a bad sign.

As I wrote previously, Dacogen is the Pepsi in the MDS treatment market, and Celgene's competing drug, Vidaza, is the Coke. Right now, the market-share split between the two drugs is basically 60-40 in favor of Vidaza, so the negative Dacogen trial (without even a hint of survival benefit) will likely boost Vidaza's market share. Celgene (Coke) wins; SuperGen (Pepsi) loses.

With SuperGen shares just over $2 before the Dacogen trial results were announced, the market wasn't exactly pricing in fabulous news on the Dacogen front, but bad news is bad news. Dacogen isn't going away; there are docs who like the drug and will continue to use it, but with no survival data, a European filing and approval for Dacogen is out of the picture, and like I said, market share in the U.S. will likely fall.

SuperGen does have $1.50 a share in cash and an interesting pipeline of early-stage cancer drugs, but nothing advanced enough to get investors really excited, especially in this tough market.