Stockpickr

How to Play $200 Oil

 

Updated from 10:17 a.m. EDT

Oil is going higher. Much higher. Despite what the various media pundits say or write, there are still several bullish factors facing the energy markets, which could push prices over $200 a barrel in the not-so-distant future.

To see the full list of stocks and analysis for each stock, check out our $200 oil portfolio on Stockpickr.com

Here are several reasons why oil prices should continue to rise:

  1. The continued weakening of the U.S. dollar vs. all major currencies is generally seen as a bullish indicator for commodities and for the oil market specifically. For some reason, you never hear a senator or representative mention this. Hello, Ben Bernanke, are you out there?
  2. Right now the world is only producing 85 million barrels of oil a day, vs. world demand of 87 million barrels a day. It's simple supply vs. demand.
  3. Byron Wein of Pequot Capital Management, who is Jim Cramer's "favorite grey beard," always reminds us that here in the U.S., on average, a single American consumes 25 barrels of oil per year. Compare this with the fact that the Chinese and Indians only consume 2 barrels of oil per year per person. Watch out.
  4. We recently spoke with Garry Kasparov, who is arguably the greatest chess player of all time. Kasparov, who is now retired from competitive chess and extremely active in Russian politics, has been blaming the Russian government for manipulating its output of oil and natural gas.
  5. Two years ago, when the Nymex(NMX) came public, the private board members voted to create an electronic platform in which buy and sell orders could be rapidly fired out over the Internet in nanoseconds, instead of through the normal open out-cry system. Unfortunately, this had the unintended consequence of inviting the "quant" or "black-box" traders, who increase futures contracts trading volumes and volatility. I recently spoke with "Harry," a former seat-holder at the Nymex. "Harry" told me that these huge hedge fund speculators were also contributing to the spike in oil prices.
  6. What happens if Israel really does attack Iran? Oil goes to $200 within a week.
  7. Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said he believes oil prices could rise to $150 to $170 a barrel this summer. Simply put, that is going to be a sell-fulfilling prophecy for traders.

Cramer: Factors Pumping Up Oil Prices

With that in mind, here are a few stocks, outside of giants such as Chevron(CVX), BP(BP), Williams(WMB) and Occidental(OXY), that could move substantially higher in the coming months.

Anadarko(APC) is especially prepared for the prospect of $200 oil, both on the natural gas side and on the oil side. It has international exposure, but with oil that high, transportation costs will become an issue for the major oil companies. For U.S. domestic usage, the Gulf of Mexico is a strong local source. Anadarko is drilling deep to develop new fields, and it has the best rig inventory lockups in the Gulf. In both the Miocene and Lower Tertiary Prospects, it is planning on drilling an additional 10 to 15 wells for exploration and appraisal. More oil and gas means more profit

On land, Anadarko has an equally impressive record. It has identified 25,000 lower-risk drill sites and plans to drill 9,000 to 11,000 of those wells in the next five years. Those are all within Wyoming, Utah and Colorado.

The Marcellus Shale reserves in Pennsylvania haven't been fully explored or brought online yet. But with $200 oil and a corresponding higher price for natural gas, the incentive to bring these new finds up to production will be substantially higher.

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Oil *
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