Pick Good Candidates to Short

06/24/08 - 11:45 AM EDT

Alan Farley


Invesco (IVZ)
Click here for larger image.
Source: eSignal

Invesco (IVZ Quote - Cramer on IVZ - Stock Picks) rallied to a seven-year high in December and sold off with the broad market. It bottomed out in March and shot back to 50- and 200-day moving average resistance. The stock surged above those levels in early May and reached $29, but then the move stalled once again. It's been pulling back in a slow decline since then.

Price dropped into the 200-day moving average last week and has been congesting into an ominous narrow range pattern at this level for the last four price bars. A break at $25.70 would confirm a breakdown and support an active downtrend that shows little support until the April swing lows at $22.


Belden (BDC)
Click here for larger image.
Source: eSignal

Belden (BDC Quote - Cramer on BDC - Stock Picks) topped out near $60 in 2007 after a multiyear uptrend. It dropped hard at that level and has been caught in a major decline for the last 11 months. The stock hit a deep low in April and bounced about six weeks later to 200-day moving average resistance, where the recovery effort failed.

Price surged below the 50-day moving average two weeks ago and has bounced back to test this new barrier. A breakdown under the eight-day low at $35.77 should issue a renewed sell signal for a virulent decline. The next support near $33 should stall but not stop the downside, which might carry price into a test of the April low near $30.28.


With a market this tumultuous, there's always a stock falling fast, but wait for the right signals before shorting. You don't want to be a victim of yet another volatile squeeze.

Alan Farley provides daily stock picks and commentary with his "Daily Swing Trade" newsletter.

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At the time of publication, Farley had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Farley is also the author of The Daily Swing Trade, a premium product that outlines his charts and analysis. Farley has also been featured in Barron's, SmartMoney, Tech Week, Active Trader, MoneyCentral, Technical Investor, Bridge Trader and Online Investor. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

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