MOST READ: Best ETFs for the Rest of '08
06/24/08 - 09:53 AM EDT
Billy Fisher
"Despite falling off sharply this year, China is still a contender and they are still growing," he says. "While other capitals have suffered a post-Olympic Games hangover, China may not, because Beijing accounts for only 3.7% of the country's GDP, and Olympics-related capital spending was only 1% of nationwide investment from 2003-2007."
As for homebuilder ETFs such as the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Fund(ITB Quote - Cramer on ITB - Stock Picks), he says. "It's too soon to bottom-fish, but keep an eye on this area." Energy Heats Up David Vomund, president and founder of Vomund Investment Management, also sees interest rates going higher. This sentiment makes the UltraShort Lehman 20+ Treasury ProShares Fund(TBT Quote - Cramer on TBT - Stock Picks) one of his top picks for the second-half of 2008. "The inflationary picture is bearish for bond prices," he says. "After being in an uptrend, long-term bond ETFs moved sideways for six months and very recently broke below the consolidation. Those that hold U.S. Treasury ETFs will be disappointed as they see prices fall." Vomund's other top pick banks on continued strength in the energy space. He likes the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index Fund(IEO Quote - Cramer on IEO - Stock Picks), which has Occidental Petroleum(OXY Quote - Cramer on OXY - Stock Picks), Devon Energy(DVN Quote - Cramer on DVN - Stock Picks), Apache(APA Quote - Cramer on APA - Stock Picks) and XTO Energy(XTO Quote - Cramer on XTO - Stock Picks) among its top holdings. "While many point to excessive profits from oil companies, the weak dollar, speculation and high oil demand, the important story is on the supply side and the role of the existing oil field decline rate," he says. Oil at $100 a barrel "is not an anomaly, but is the result of fixed supply and increasing demand." The Three Bears Arthur Hill, editor and publisher of TDTrader.com, thinks that the market could be in for some tough sledding in the second-half of 2008. His top three ETF picks for the next six months are bets on problems ahead.
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