Boeing All Done Growing?

Boeing's Backlog Defense

For its part, Boeing suggested last month that its backlog offers protection, particularly given the broad diversity of its customers. Its backlog of roughly 3,600 aircraft, with a list price of about $270 billion, is equivalent to about eight years of current production.

Just 17% of the orders are from the Americas (including 11% from the U.S.). Europe accounts for 16% as does Africa and the Middle East. The biggest chunk is from Asia, with 16% from Asia Pacific (including Australia), 12% from China and East Asia, and 7% from Southeast Asia. Another 14% are from leasing and government customers.

"If there's an economic Armageddon, that will impact our commercial business, but we don't see that," CEO Jim McNerney said at an investor conference in May. "We see none of that outside the U.S ... no order pushouts, no cancellations, [and] I don't see any major competitive action that can hurt us right now."

McNerney spoke frankly of the 787's problems, but assured there has been an end to the problems of creating a new global supply chain.

"The global supply chain model is the right model, [but] I think we booted it," he said. "I think we were too aggressive in some places, both in screening the capability of suppliers, and in drawing the line between what they could do and what we could do.

"It's a little bit of a 'shame on us, shame on our partners' for not getting there sooner," he said. "[But] we have real data that says they're getting there. The risk I see now is the normal risk attendant in new airplane development."

Macquarie Capital's Stallard agrees that the company's position, which includes $12.1 billion in cash and securities at the end of the first quarter, is strong. But he notes that the 787 program still has significant risk, and reminds: "The company's track record in assessing progress on the 787 to date has been less than ideal."

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