Weekend Reading: Talking Stagflation

06/08/08 - 01:18 PM EDT

Paul Kedrosky

Welcome to another edition of Weekend Reading. First, a look back at the week that just finished, then a look forward to the week ahead, and, finally, a summary of articles and papers worth reading.

It was a crummy week. Really, really crummy. The Dow slid 3.4%, the S&P 500 fell 2.8% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9%. Things were fairly dodgy all week, but the bottom really fell out on Friday with weak economic data, and a record-setting 2-day oil advance to $139. Ouch, ouch and ouch.

Looking forward to the week ahead, stagflation is the word on everyone's lips. High and increasing prices, plus weak economic growth, is a condition investors hoped to have left behind in the 1970s. Back then, a combination of high inflation, runaway oil prices and weak economic growth led to interest rates hitting 21% and the Dow standing still for four years.

Turning to economic indicators, inflation worries will have everyone looking at the consumer price index, which is scheduled for release Friday. Investors will also give oodles of scrutiny to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book of economic conditions, due out Wednesday.

Turning to earnings, all eyes are on Lehman Brothers(LEH Quote - Cramer on LEH - Stock Picks). The much worried-over investment bank is thought to be considering releasing earnings next week, which would be a week early. If investors are disappointed, it could precipitate some nasty trading.

Lastly, here are some articles and papers worth reading:

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At time of publication, Kedrosky had no positions in stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Dr. Paul Kedrosky is a former highly ranked sell-side technology equity analyst, and he currently runs a technology finance institute at the University of California, San Diego. He is also a venture partner with Ventures West, an institutional venture capital firm with more than $400 million under management. He maintains a widely read blog called Infectious Greed.

Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While Kedrosky cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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