John Fout
How do you tell 2.3 million people that their votes don't count? Those millions are the voters in Florida and Michigan who had lost their voice last year at the hands of the Democratic Party's rules committee.
On Saturday, the committee reversed itself, unanimously recognizing half of the Florida delegation based on an interpretation of a bylaw calling for an automatic penalty for states moving their primary ahead of Feb. 5. The committee also approved a deal splitting Michigan's delegates, but this brokered decision, suggested by Michigan Democrats, proved controversial, and had no basis in the rules. Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D., N.Y.) campaign strongly denounced the ruling on Michigan and reluctantly agreed to the Florida deal. After the meeting, Clinton advisers Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy said in a statement, "We strongly object to the Committee's decision to undercut its own rules in seating Michigan's delegates without reflecting the votes of the people of Michigan." The advisers also threatened further action: "We reserve the right to challenge this decision before the Credentials Committee and appeal for a fair allocation of Michigan's delegates that actually reflects the votes as they were cast." Sen. Barack Obama (D., Ill.) had taken his name off the ballot in Michigan in order to curry additional favor with caucus-goers in Iowa and voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina -- states that had been approved to vote before Feb. 5. Forty percent of the voters in the Michigan primary voted uncommitted, and Clinton received 55% of the vote. The deal reflected these percentages, though it had no basis in the rules. The committee could have chosen not to follow the action in Florida, docking half of the delegates. They could have agreed not to take any action and ignored the appeal entirely. Finally, they could have recognized all of the voters under another provision of the rules. Instead, they voted on a back-door compromise agreed upon by Michigan's Democrats and Obama's campaign. The Clinton campaign had called for Obama to get no delegates, since uncommitted voters are a recognized status by the Democrats' charter. It was called the "unity" decision, but it seemed unusual because committee members had all along stressed the importance of following the rules. Will it have any effect on the nomination? It's very unlikely. Clinton gains a net 24 delegates under the deal, according to MSNBC's count, which makes the new magic number 2,118. Obama will be 62.5 delegates away heading into Sunday's Puerto Rico primary and Tuesday's final two primaries in Montana and South Dakota. Clinton would need 238 delegates to win the nomination. Winning that many delegates will prove nearly impossible. Her only hope comes from superdelegates deciding she is the most electable candidate based on her performance in swing states and success in winning the popular vote. According to RealClearPolitics.com, Clinton would lead by 52,331 if all contests were included. Will it happen? No, it will not. Everyone, including the Clinton campaign, expects the nomination to be wrapped up within the next couple of weeks.
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