Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

But what if it is not? What if the only real impact is on American driving, and American driving isn't enough to cause a decline in oil in even a severe cutback. From the beginning of this commodities run, I have cautioned that we are not the marginal buyer of any commodity and that extends to gasoline. Unless gasoline use falls off dramatically -- not 2% or 4%, but something in the 10% to 15% range -- I cannot imagine that it will have any impact at all on the price of oil. We aren't setting it.

That's why, as we go down, I am not thinking about a crash in the group or natural gas. Anything that has run parabolically, as oil has, typically crashes.

I don't think this one can crash, because the only component that can really be variable besides global demand is hedge fund/pension demand, and I don't think that they are willing to dump the asset wholesale or even cut it by more than a small factor.

That's why I once again say, let the energy stocks come in, take some off if you want to, but to give up on them is to bet on a collapse in oil that is not likely to come.

Previous selloffs of the magnitude I am expecting have produced roughly 15% declines. So if you take Chevron (CVX Quote - Cramer on CVX - Stock Picks) has the quintessential average stock, you are looking at a return to roughly $82 or $83 on this scale. Again, worth dodging and coming back to. Just to be clear, I favor trimming the natural gas stocks, but less so than the majors, even though they are similarly overextended, because they are still growth entities with big finds that make a difference. The integrateds have no such finds and are hostage to brutal refinery margins.

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