I have seen this movie before, and I have profited from it. It is all too familiar.
A new paradigm and, of course, another CNBC special -- this time on the "oil crisis." On the latter score, this week's CNBC special on the oil crisis, moderated by buddy/friend/pal Dylan Ratigan, is eerily reminiscent of the CNBC town hall special on the housing crisis at the peak (in prices and activity) of the residential real estate market done back in 2005. (Not surprisingly, I was on that panel, representing the negative/contrarian view of the housing market's outlook.)
There is little doubt that, for a host of reasons, there is a fundamental problem with the balance of long-term demand and supply for energy (and other commodities), but, to me, it is also increasingly clear that speculators have exacerbated the intermediate- and long-term issues in many commodities.
At the risk of being slightly premature, I say to the oil longs -- sold to you! -- which is exactly my game plan as I expand my energy-related shorts via a long position in the UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG Quote) and a short in the Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH Quote).
Doug Kass is the author of The Edge, a blog on RealMoney Silver that features real-time shorting opportunities on the market.
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| Dow Jones | S&P 500 | NASDAQ | 10-Year Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,309.92 | 1,091.49 | 2,138.44 | 32.31 |
Oil *
77.12
|
|
DOWN
154.48
|
DOWN
19.14
|
DOWN
37.61
|
DOWN
0.48
|
10 Yr
3.23%
SPDR Gold
115.06
|
|
-1.48%
|
-1.72%
|
-1.73%
|
-1.46%
|
Data delayed 20 minutes |














