Oil-Led Recession? I Wouldn't Bet On It

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A recession led by oil. That's what the stocks are saying today, and I don't know if I agree. You can see Abbott (ABT Quote - Cramer on ABT - Stock Picks) and Anheuser-Busch (BUD Quote - Cramer on BUD - Stock Picks) and Schering-Plough (SGP Quote - Cramer on SGP - Stock Picks) and Altria (MO Quote - Cramer on MO - Stock Picks), and you know that's the signal that the market thinks that we are not going to avoid a recession with the $5 gasoline that is coming.

That means Target's (TGT Quote - Cramer on TGT - Stock Picks) wrong and Home Depot (HD Quote - Cramer on HD - Stock Picks) is right! That means we should be worried about U.S. Steel (X Quote - Cramer on X - Stock Picks) and we should be buying Clorox (CLX Quote - Cramer on CLX - Stock Picks). (It's pretty amazing that Kimberly-Clark (KMB Quote - Cramer on KMB - Stock Picks) is up -- that's the one that is most levered to oil!)

You know my view: The stocks aren't telling it right. We aren't going to have a recession because of oil, because we haven't had a recession because of oil. In fact, the credit that is becoming available will offset the gasoline issues, and the companies that have adjusted to these prices will continue to adjust.

Retail remains bad. Shocker.

The only mysteries are Pepsi (PEP Quote - Cramer on PEP - Stock Picks) and Procter (PG Quote - Cramer on PG - Stock Picks), which never lift. I would be a buyer of both.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Abbott Laboratories, Altria and Schering-Plough.