Oil-Led Recession? I Wouldn't Bet On It

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A recession led by oil. That's what the stocks are saying today, and I don't know if I agree. You can see Abbott (ABT Quote) and Anheuser-Busch (BUD Quote) and Schering-Plough (SGP Quote) and Altria (MO Quote), and you know that's the signal that the market thinks that we are not going to avoid a recession with the $5 gasoline that is coming.

That means Target's (TGT Quote) wrong and Home Depot (HD Quote) is right! That means we should be worried about U.S. Steel (X Quote) and we should be buying Clorox (CLX Quote). (It's pretty amazing that Kimberly-Clark (KMB Quote) is up -- that's the one that is most levered to oil!)

You know my view: The stocks aren't telling it right. We aren't going to have a recession because of oil, because we haven't had a recession because of oil. In fact, the credit that is becoming available will offset the gasoline issues, and the companies that have adjusted to these prices will continue to adjust.

Retail remains bad. Shocker.

The only mysteries are Pepsi (PEP Quote) and Procter (PG Quote), which never lift. I would be a buyer of both.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Abbott Laboratories, Altria and Schering-Plough.