Upgrades at the Top Signal 'Look Out Below'

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The signal of a short-term top came yesterday with those ridiculous upgrades, particularly the one of Texas Instruments(TXN Quote - Cramer on TXN - Stock Picks) and the other of Union Pacific(UNP Quote - Cramer on UNP - Stock Picks). Those were desperation moves, saying "I can't take it anymore, I have to participate."

When you take Union Pacific off your list at $99 and add it back at $159, when you have no edge whatsoever on Texas Instruments, recommending it when we have learned about a decline in cell phones, that's all about feeling left out. We see it again today with the Credit Suisse upgrade of Canadian Natural Resources after a run that is parabolic. Not value added.

In fact, this kind of research is the mirror image of covering "at the top" because you can't take the pain. It's reaching and not being patient. It's really costly. As we can all see.

These analysts are not alone.

We all feel it at times, and those who claim they don't are just liars, except those who are lying to themselves.

Today shows you the perils. You can buy anything you want today. There's plenty of merchandise for sale.

But meanwhile, the buyer's remorse has set in for those who acted yesterday or Friday, and now there's a real look-out-below sense, particularly with oil at $129 and the producer price index so high and AIG(AIG Quote - Cramer on AIG - Stock Picks) needing billions to get back to the levels it claimed it was at in December.

All in all, the reach yesterday should have been more obvious. I know I saw it, but I reached no conclusion.

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