Gaze Skeptically On This Bullish Tale

Well then... Before you've ever heard a band play, you'd probably be safer not declaring them the next Beatles, and the savvy investor is right to be skeptical when it comes to a movie, any movie. But especially one that is designed to appeal to that most fickle bunch: kids. Again: there is a fine line between great success and total obscurity in the entertainment field. Assuming a high chance of success early on might then be the definition of careless, with all the undefined variables of taste and timing involved. This is obviously true not just of Disney, but also everyone from DreamWorks AnimationDWA to ViacomVIA.B to News CorpNWS and even CablevisionCVC.

Unfortunately, such flip, careless thought is no rarity. Shortly before the original Barron's article bulling Disney ran, The Business Press Maven mercilessly teased an analyst (and I use the term loosely) for remarking that all you need to do when investing in entertainment companies is to find one with hits. Uh, yeah. That's all. Simple is as simple does.

Remember: be careful when Barron's prints puzzled articles asking why a previous article did not move a stock. Give Disney some time, it's a good company on the right long-term track, but be doubly careful when analyst or journalist treats success in the entertainment field like something you can put a finger on.