Kass: Bulls Could Drown on the River Card

Unlike some permabear Cassandras, who are eternally critical of the bullish view (what they often describe as a subjective prism of media commentators, money managers, investment strategists and economists), when I see value-added content in the media, I am quick to admit so.

For example, while I have often criticized New York Times columnist Ben Stein, when he produces non-biased content that admits to the challenges the economy and the markets face, I am quick to acknowledge it.

This morning I want to start my opening missive by acknowledging what I would describe as the most informative hour on CNBC's "Squawk Box" in months, which featured a discussion on short selling with Pershing Square's William Ackman and Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn. The 60 minutes or so was jam-packed with unique observations, sage advice and, importantly, well-thought-out questioning from Becky Quick, Joe Kernen et al. The roundtable contained an examination of a number of issues, including the value of short selling, the risk associated with going public with short ideas as well as a number of other tangential issues.

Stated simply, it was brilliant business television in that it made us think and taught us things we never knew before.

"When we play, we must realize, before anything else, that we are out to make money."

-- David Sklansky

Near the end of "Squawk Box," David Einhorn compared his lessons learned playing Texas Hold 'Em poker with his trials and tribulations in the stock market -- he had finished eighteenth in the 2006 World Series of Poker -- which gets me to the second message of today's opener.

Bears Might Hold The Doyle Brunson Hand

"Poker reveals to the frank observer something else of import -- it will teach him about his own nature. Many bad players do not improve because they cannot bear self-knowledge."

-- David Mamet

Today, many believe, like Secretary Paulson, that the credit problems are almost over and that the economy is posed for growth in late 2008/early 2009. They argue that the stimulation and housing packages will jump start economic growth and that many of the financial institutions that have marked down billions of dollars of loans will likely "write up" the value of these loans in the quarters ahead. A reacceleration in corporate profits, it is opined, will follow and, with it, closely will come a rebound in the world's stock markets.