Priya Ganapati
"Grand Theft Auto IV did good numbers but it eventually did what it was supposed to," says Bhatia. "Had it been eight million units or more in the first week, Take-Two might have had a case but the initial success though strong was as expected."
Bhatia expects Take-Two to sell 10 million to 12 million copies of the game in the first year of its release and about 18 million copies worldwide over the game's lifetime. Pachter estimates 9 million copies will be sold in the first year with about 20 million over the lifetime of the game. Take-Two's stock has reacted little to the release and now the initial sales numbers of Grand Theft Auto IV. The market has discounted sales of the game and the success of the title has been built into the current stock price, analysts say. Take-Two shares have been hovering around the $26 mark since EA's bid for the company became public on Feb. 24. Take-Two's stock jumped from $17.36 on Feb. 22, the last trading day before EA's offer became public, to $26.89 on Feb. 25. Shares of Take-Two fell 4 cents to $26.33 in recent trading. EA was up 53 cents, or 1%, to $52.71. "For better or worse, Take-Two's stock price is governed by what EA does with its bid," says Todd Greenwald, senior analyst with Signal Hill Capital Group. "Six million units makes for great headline but it is what EA has already taken into account while making its offer." Signal Hill does not own shares or have an investment banking relationship with Take-Two and EA.
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