Bolling: Chevron, Tesoro Ready to Roll

Furthermore, with a slowing economy, some retail stocks and auto stock money recently "benched" has likely found its way to oil as well. Lastly, it's important to remember the brutal drubbing that financial companies have taken in the last 12 months (think WachoviaWB, Sovereign BancorpSOV and CitigroupC, trading 50% off its 52 week highs).

The landscape is changing, though. The 325-basis points in rate cuts over the last seven Fed meetings are beginning to show results. And the liquidity functions have eased the nasty credit crisis we were in that weekend a few months ago when Bear Stearns went for a song.

The beneficiaries are many. The financial sector should soon become investor-worthy again. This just may give traders a much needed shot of adrenaline. That, in turn, may give the Fed the green light to end its easing cycle. That may then signal to the dollar traders that it is clear to strengthen further against the European currencies.

All this analysis is key to understanding today's plays: ChevronCVX and TesoroTSO.

Refiners have lagged the energy sector over the last six months and for good reason. The high price they are paying for oil was being met with lower demand for their products on the other side of their refineries. The squeeze was on.

Last summer, the gasoline crack spread (the gross margin on a barrel of oil refined into gasoline) hit $36. Last month, that same margin went negative. It now sits around $8/bbl.

I believe those margins are about to firm. Oil has shown signs of weakness. Equities are positive for the first time this year and within 10% to 11% of last year's record highs. That means money should begin to flow out of crude oil and into financials, tech stocks and others who have been neglected during the Fed easing cycle.