Marvel Steels Itself for 'Iron Man' Open

Banking on a Big Open

Influential Los Angeles Times entertainment writer John Horn recently wrote that tracking numbers for Iron Man suggest it could be one of the summer's top hits. He cited rival studio executive sources who have seen the tracking numbers -- which are based on consumer surveys that gauge movie interest from people who have seen the film's trailer. "Don't be surprised if it takes in as much as $70 million on opening weekend," Horn wrote.

Hollywood Stock Exchange, which acts as a virtual stock market that tracks expectations for films, shows Iron Man is expected to gross $214 million, which suggests a $70 million opening.

One issue facing the stock: Even if Iron Man is a hit, many are expecting another release, Incredible Hulk, to have problems. The issue is that the film is being released just five years after a separate Ang-Lee-directed version of the film disappointed (just $132 million of U.S. box).

All this makes Marvel a bit of an oddball stock. Last year, about 25% of Marvel's revenue came from its slow-growth publishing business, which controls 50% of the North American comic market (followed by DC Comics at 35%). This is a great business, but it lacks the capacity to get investors thrilled about the stock.

The rest of Marvel's profits come from its high-margin licensing business -- which collects royalties on sales of toys, video games and consumer goods made by the likes of HasbroHAS, Sega and Johnson & JohnsonJNJ. This is a very strong business, but critics of the stock say Marvel's future success here is dependent on turning the Iron Man and Hulk characters into the next stars that the X-Men and Spider-Man have become.