Fantasy Baseball's Lessons for Investors

This column was originally published on RealMoney on Apr. 1, 2008 at 11:59 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.

I confess to being something of a baseball junkie. In addition to watching or listening to just about every Orioles game, I check in with the Cubs scores most days and generally watch whatever games ESPN has on.

In addition, I am hooked on fantasy baseball. This year I cut myself back to just one league for time reasons, but I still check lineups and stats every day. I have used several strategies over the years, including various forms of Sabermetrics, the statistical approach to selecting ballplayers inspired by Billy Beane and Bill James. As with many investing approaches, the more people became aware of it, the less I won using this approach.

This year I have gone back to my contrarian roots and devised a new approach. I stacked my lineup with the best players on bad teams. I have on my team two Orioles, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis; Josh Hamilton from the Texas Rangers; and Billy Butler, the budding Kansas City Royals slugger. My theory is simple. Although they are all good to great players, their teams are awful. They will not be pitched around as often, or held as closely on base as the players on good teams. As a result, these good players on bad teams should get more hitting, scoring and base-stealing chances than others whose teams are stacked with talent. This method runs counter to baseball's conventional wisdom, but statistics bear it out as a winning strategy for the fantasy game.

I know what you are saying. "That's great, Tim, but what does your baseball addiction have to do with making money in the stock market?" It occurs to me that quite possibly it has the potential to have a lot to do with making money in the market. Using the same thought process, it occurred to me that looking at the best companies in the worst industries might have the potential to deliver long-term gains.

Industry groups come in and out of favor on Wall Street as quickly as fashion in Beverly Hills, and economic cycles always change over time. The best companies -- the ones that more than hold their own in difficult times -- are the ones who lead the way when business conditions and Wall Street expectations begin to turn.

I turned to the Value Investment survey to find the best companies in some of the worst-performing industry groups in the current environment. I looked for the companies with the best rankings and outlooks in the worst industry groups. My search turned up some interesting names that should be on your watch list even if they are not immediate buys.

Building Materials

The building materials industry has been horrible. In fact, it is among the very worst of all the groups Value Line covers. Difficulties in the residential construction business have been well covered in the financial press and here on RealMoney. The commercial business is showing some signs of slowing as the economy continues to weaken.