Electability Is Name of the Game

But we shouldn't jump so fast to conclusions as something critical went missing in their analysis. Here's the money quote many failed to notice:

"While the senator's support among Democrats is little changed, he did slip among conservatives and Republican voters, groups that had shown some attraction to Sen. Obama's message of changing partisan politics in Washington."

Obama had convinced many in the media that his campaign remains different. He will unite the country and overcome the blue state-red state divide with his bipartisan tone. Maybe, maybe not; it's an unproven thesis.

The media missed the true problem with his pastor's well publicized diatribes that appeared in sermons. Patriotism will become an issue, not race. Wright's statements of "God Damn America" will be repeated again and again in the general election. Republicans feel queasy attacking Obama on race, but patriotism has long been fair game.

The attacks won't come from the McCain campaign; he has denounced racial attacks. But given what they did to Sen. John Kerry, a fellow Vietnam veteran, in 2004, it does seem likely some conservative group will run "swift-boat" style ads on Obama's patriotism. They will talk about him not wearing a flag pin; they will play the tape of his wife saying she's never been proud of her country. Lastly, they will play Pastor Wright's anti-American statements.

Obama's favorability ratings could drop like a stone in middle America, including key swing states such as Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin. Obama may recover by giving another speech on patriotism. But if the attacks come late in the election, it may be too late for him to recover.

Obama's unifying message sounds wonderful, and I wish it were possible. But I believe it won't happen in this election. Whether some people like it or not, the presidential election map still comes down to the electoral college math plain and simple. States still appear blue and red on close observation.

Turning back to 2004, George Bush beat John Kerry by 286 electoral votes to 251. Two key swing states in the election were Florida and Ohio. McCain maintains solid margins over Obama in both of these states according to the running average at realclearpolitics.com. McCain has even pulled ahead of Obama in the blue state of Pennsylvania.

Should Obama lose those states, he would need to find other swing states to turn the tide. Some had pointed to Missouri as one of those states or Virginia, but a new Rasmussen poll has McCain opening up a wide lead in Missouri over both Clinton and Obama. The blue state-red state divide stays intact.

Clinton polls marginally worse than Obama in national polls against McCain. But she fares much better in the swing states of both Ohio and Florida. If she were to win one of those races, now McCain would be behind the eight-ball needing to pull off some upsets. Winning the national vote guarantees nothing in a presidential election -- just ask Al Gore.

The Delegate Race Looks to the General Election

Clinton likely wishes the Democrats used the electoral college to determine the election or winner-take-all. She would have sewn up the nomination with her big states already. Instead, Obama leads because of proportional representation of delegates and wins in many caucuses.