Electability Is Name of the Game

Barack and Michelle Obama sent a message to the media early in the primary season. Barack said:

"I'm confident that I will get her [Clinton] votes if I'm the nominee, it's not clear that she would get the votes I got if she were the nominee."

Then Michelle said on supporting Hillary Clinton:

"I'd have to think about that. I'd have to think about that, her policies, her approach, her tone."

The logic behind those statements went unquestioned by the media. Ever since, the media has begun saying how Obama supporters would defect from a Clinton candidacy, ruining the Democratic party and handing the election to Sen. John McCain.

A poll last week put that thesis to shame. Gallup polled Democrats on their likelihood to defect from a Democratic candidate and crossover to support McCain: 28% of Clinton supporters chose McCain over Obama, while only 19% of Obama supporters abandon Clinton for McCain.

Enough said for the lazy analysis in the media.

This is bad news for Obama come a general election. Clinton has very strong support among women, and this election offers a classic scenario they know well: A lesser experienced man gets all the breaks on the way to being promoted to a better position. The media forgets sexism and intently focuses only on race.

Furthermore, Clinton has strong support among Latinos. Some of those Latinos may defect from Obama to McCain as the Arizonan can boast a reasonable record on immigration. McCain has no plans to demagogue illegal immigration in the general election, which would hurt many Republicans with the Latino vote.

Clinton also has strong support from older voters. Those voters may choose to vote for McCain over Obama. Obama has created a generational divide in his campaigning and chosen to cede seniors to Clinton. McCain proves popular with seniors, and white seniors may prefer McCain to Obama. In his speech on race, many pundits thought Obama threw his white grandmother "under the bus" by pointing out her racism. I think this will hurt Obama in this age group.

Nevertheless, so-called McCain Democrats (defectors) appear to exist. McCain has gained in national polls in recent weeks, running much stronger against either Democrat. If defections come from Democratic candidates in sufficient numbers, it may swing the election to McCain in November.

Yet, the media for the most part has ignored the poll, instead blasting Clinton for remaining in the race. In the words of media columnist Howard Kurtz:

"This is the new media narrative that the former first lady is confronting, that she is prolonging the agony and is just being selfish by refusing to pack it in."

The turnaround is stunning considering the huge controversy over Obama's pastor two weeks ago. Even Obama stated over the weekend Clinton had no reason to exit the race, despite high profile statements from some of his surrogates such as Sen. Chris Dodd (D., Conn.) and Gov. Bill Richardson (D., N. M.).

Blue States vs. Red States

The myopic media coverage made its way into analysis of another recent poll. A MSNBC/WSJ poll showed that Obama has rebounded from the Rev. Jeremiah Wright scandal. The poll showed Clinton and Obama tied at 45% apiece among Democrats. The media said the poll proves Obama is poised to continue his romp over Clinton. Of course, it should surprise nobody Obama has rebounded with Democrats. The media has ensured this with cozy coverage, lauding his speech on race in America.

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