Investing

Cramer: The Past Is a Game Plan for the Present

03/17/08 - 09:34 AM EDT


We want to try to figure out what can happen. We want to try to figure out how to protect ourselves and profit from it.

Why is that important? I want to go back to 1987, 1990 and to 2000. Those were three fulcrum years where, if you had a game plan, you could think more clearly than if you were winging it -- which, by the way, is what the Fed is doing.

Here's my takeaway from those three crashes. First, away from the Nasdaq's stunning decline in 2000 - a fall from 5000 to 2000 -- you could have made a lot of hay with traditional S&P 500 names with solid balance sheets that were insensitive to the recession. You had great success with Procter PG and Coke KO. You made money.

In 1990 with the S&L collapse, you tried to lose less by being in the classic growth stocks, many of which went down. Only the highest-growth stocks prevailed. It's very tough to believe that we will be different now. No real gains.

And in 1987, pretty much EVERYTHING was marked down, including a huge amount of stock that shouldn't have been. What rallied first? Hard-asset stocks: copper, paper, that kind of thing.

Then the drugs.

Then the industrials.

I think that menu might be a good place or blueprint for today.

In 1987's case, you could make your career by buying distressed stocks of non-distressed companies.

That could very well be the pattern again AFTER things settle down later this week.

Random musings: Stocks I would not bottom-fish today are ones with perhaps overstated book value: Lehman LEH, Citigroup C, Merrill MER and Bank of America BAC.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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