Clinton Needs Ohio, Texas, or She's Toast

Hillary Clinton hasn't won a primary since Super Tuesday. During Obama's streak of 11 straight wins, her campaign pointed toward the big states of Ohio and Texas on March 4 and her big leads in polls in those states. Those leads have disappeared of late.

Clinton's campaign strategist, Mark Penn, opined last week that Barack Obama had to win both states to maintain his momentum. That's nonsense. Clinton must win by a reasonable margin in Ohio and win the popular vote in Texas to change the media narrative and stop her slide in national polls.

If not, her campaign will end very soon.

Clinton has attacked Obama hard in Texas and Ohio. In Texas, she ran an ad called "children," that contends she's the person you'd call in an emergency at 3 a.m.

Clinton and Obama have traded insults on NAFTA in Ohio. Clinton's attacks have gathered more steam as Obama's campaign has gotten caught up in a controversy. According to Canadian television network CTV and the Associated Press, a senior economic advisor for the Obama campaign, Austan Goolsbee, met with Canadian officials in the Chicago embassy to downplay rhetoric on NAFTA. Obama denied the meeting took place. But a memo has surfaced from the meeting with details that Goolsbee noted the protectionist rhetoric "should be viewed as more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy plans."

Both Democrats have used demagoguery on NAFTA, as I wrote on Friday.

Obama's campaign responded to the attacks by trying to knock Clinton's judgment on issues like Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama opposed the Iraq war in 2002. Obama also has called this the silly season for attacks and has claimed the Clinton campaign has become desperate.

Clinton's attacks appear to have worked in the polls. She has stopped her downward momentum of late, and polls in Ohio and Texas remain too close to call.

What Are Tomorrow's Scenarios?

If Obama wins both Ohio and Texas, then Clinton may pull out of the race as soon as Tuesday night. Her campaign has argued: "I win the big states." That would no longer be true, with Obama holding the lead in delegates, the national vote lead and a massive edge in money resources to win remaining primaries.

Clinton wouldn't pull a Mike Huckabee. Huckabee has continued to run against McCain despite calls for him to abandon his candidacy. Should Clinton remain in the race, the media will roast her more than they do now. Furthermore, she has held a consistent lead in superdelegates -- party officials and elected officials. Her lead has dwindled in the last three weeks. Not only would her lead disappear, but delegates also would leave in droves in an effort to unify the party.

Clinton may be stubborn, but she isn't stupid. She would try to keep her political career alive for the future. If Obama lost to McCain in November, for example, then she could campaign again in 2012.

What if Clinton wins Ohio and loses in Texas? This also would hurt Clinton. Texas has a large Latino population, which has been a key voter bloc for Clinton in states like Arizona, California and Nevada. Losing in Texas would show that her base has broken down.

Some in the Clinton campaign might try to spin that she's still viable, but I turn to Bill Clinton, who two weeks ago said: "If you [Texas voters] don't deliver for her, I don't think she can [win]." She would drop out of the campaign within a week.

What if Clinton wins Ohio and wins Texas' popular vote but loses the delegate race in Texas? Texas has both a primary and a caucus. The primary determines the majority of the vote. But the delegate battle may be won in the caucus, where the Obama campaign has bested Clinton in almost every state.

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