Coming Week: Horror Show
02/23/08 - 10:14 AM EST
Nat Worden
"People won't care much about GDP numbers from the fourth quarter at this point," says Stovall, noting that most market watchers think the economy is already in a recession. "We're forecasting that first-quarter and second-quarter GDP this year will be down 0.7%."
Perhaps the most important piece of data for the week will come Friday, when the government reports personal income and spending outlays for January. Economists are expecting incomes to be up 0.5% for the month, while spending rose 0.2%. Also Friday, economists expect the University of Michigan to report that its consumer sentiment index ticked up to 70 in February from January's reading of 69.6. If expectations are on the mark, that report will diverge from the Conference Board's report on consumer confidence for February, expected to drop to 82.5 from January's 87.9. Consumer spending remains a chief concern for economists amid the housing slowdown. Retail earnings have already disappointed investors, particularly with weak forecasts for sales and earnings in 2008. Investors will get another round of retail reports next week, including home improvement giants Home Depot (HD Quote - Cramer on HD - Stock Picks) and Lowe's (LOW Quote - Cramer on LOW - Stock Picks), along with Target (TGT Quote - Cramer on TGT - Stock Picks), Sears Holdings (SHLD Quote - Cramer on SHLD - Stock Picks), Macy's (M Quote - Cramer on M - Stock Picks) and Nordstrom (JWN Quote - Cramer on JWN - Stock Picks). Despite all the potential for disappointment in what appears to be a nascent bear market, Stovall says losses to the stock market should be limited. He points out that the S&P 500 is currently down about 16% from its October highs, and he'll be surprised if it sinks further than 25% from that point. Also, Stovall says stocks aren't expensive. He notes that the S&P is trading at 16.5 times trailing annual operating results -- a 15% discount to the average valuation since 1988 and a little more than half the index's valuation at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. "We're due for a bear market, but it shouldn't be a very bad one," says Stovall.
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