Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
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Originally published on Feb. 13 at 12:38 p.m. EST OK, this is really important -- one of my most beloved indicators, the bull/bear ratio, has hit a level that simply means you cannot have a big hit to this market, and that level is the 36% bull level. I know I am not a chartist, but I have sworn by two technical indicators all my trading life: the S&P Oscillator and the bull-bear ratio. Any time we get severely oversold, I hold my nose and buy; any time we get the bull cohort below 40%, I have to buy something; and when it gets too close to 35%, you have to cover all shorts and get long. That's where we are right now. This is a very major piece of data that should encourage you to find something that you want to buy here. I think you need to go over which quarters were the best, and buy something you feel comfortable with, whether it is a Goldman Sachs(GS Quote - Cramer on GS - Stock Picks) down 50 points or an EMC(EMC Quote - Cramer on EMC - Stock Picks) down 10 -- that's one I am picking at -- or a GM(GM Quote - Cramer on GM - Stock Picks) or a Conoco(COP Quote - Cramer on COP - Stock Picks), all of which are very low-multiple stocks on the out years and can be compelling. Why not take the other side of the nitpicking New York state attorney general and buy some cheap HMOs? Why not take in some Pepsi(PEP Quote - Cramer on PEP - Stock Picks), which obviously had a great quarter vs. Coke(KO Quote - Cramer on KO - Stock Picks), or Procter(PG Quote - Cramer on PG - Stock Picks) and Merck(MRK Quote - Cramer on MRK - Stock Picks), which are buying back stock furiously? I was on the Jones Apparel(JNY Quote - Cramer on JNY - Stock Picks) call, good dividend, nice deal unfolding with Wal-Mart(WMT Quote - Cramer on WMT - Stock Picks). Circle back to some blowouts, Avon(AVP Quote - Cramer on AVP - Stock Picks), Tupperware(TUP Quote - Cramer on TUP - Stock Picks) and Hologic(HOLX Quote - Cramer on HOLX - Stock Picks). Take a look at the Air Products(APD Quote - Cramer on APD - Stock Picks)/Airgas(ARG Quote - Cramer on ARG - Stock Picks) world. Or how about Yum!(YUM Quote - Cramer on YUM - Stock Picks) and McDonald's(MCD Quote - Cramer on MCD - Stock Picks) with some nice growth? Don't forget that IBM(IBM Quote - Cramer on IBM - Stock Picks) and Corning(GLW Quote - Cramer on GLW - Stock Picks) had great numbers. Go look at some of the stuff that Bob Marcin is buying, all cheap, all could be explosive here. I am giving you this laundry list because there is very limited downside when you get this few bulls and this much negativity. There is a lot of talk about a catastrophe -- again -- with the insurers, this time MGIC(MTG Quote - Cramer on MTG - Stock Picks) -- or a broken buck cash reserve -- this time of course, Citigroup(C Quote - Cramer on C - Stock Picks). I don't know what the story is with MGIC, but I dislike it. Citigroup? So much that could be sold there that I am not sweating that program. I would not be short here, as juicy as it has been to do so after a couple of days' run. The short side is way too crowded right now, way too crowded. It just won't work the way you think it is. Too many people are leaning your way, and way too few are leaning the other way. Any indicator can be wrong, of course. But this pattern is about as good as you can get. To ignore it is to ignore a lot of history. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Citigroup, ConocoPhillips, Corning, EMC, Goldman Sachs, Hologic and McDonald's.Higher Food Costs Seem Easy to Swallow
Originally published on Feb. 13 at 2:02 p.m. EST The shocking thing about higher food costs here, the raw inputs everyone is talking about, is how little they have affected bottom lines. Last night I met with David Novak, the head of Yum! Brands (YUM Quote - Cramer on YUM - Stock Picks) and one of the great CEOs out there, and he was talking about such a minuscule hiccup to earnings at KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut -- ground zero for all the costs -- that I was astonished. But Burger King (BKC Quote - Cramer on BKC - Stock Picks) and McDonald's (MCD Quote - Cramer on MCD - Stock Picks) said the same: it's just not that much of a hit. Molson Coors (TAP Quote - Cramer on TAP - Stock Picks) bemoaned costs on their call, but it hasn't really hurt the bottom line because of a whole host of cost controls and margin expansions away from raw costs because of mergers and savings. Pepsi (PEP Quote - Cramer on PEP - Stock Picks) saw very little pressure despite Frito Lay, and Coke (KO Quote - Cramer on KO - Stock Picks) had virtually no cost exposure. On the Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD Quote - Cramer on BWLD - Stock Picks) call, there was a mention of the escalating cost of wings, but the company seemed to have it totally under control. Perhaps the most telling were Panera (PNRA Quote - Cramer on PNRA - Stock Picks) -- a bread company! -- and Darden (DRI Quote - Cramer on DRI - Stock Picks). Panera admits that the rapidly rising wheat costs are going to hurt them, but they are fully booked for 2008, to use their terminology, and that looks like a good situation getting better instead of worse. Darden shocked everyone with how under control the costs were, which is one of the reasons that stock just went up 9 points. This is a remarkable development -- companies passing on costs with prices sticking and consumers accepting. All of that is happening right now and it is why this group may not quit despite the headwinds everyone expected that would hurt their bottom lines. Random musings: Always go with best of breed. Isn't that the lesson of First Solar (FSLR Quote - Cramer on FSLR - Stock Picks)?! ... Very impressive action in the phone companies; they could gallop further here. ... How about Hewlett-Packard (HPQ Quote - Cramer on HPQ - Stock Picks) going to $45 off of options? Altria (MO Quote - Cramer on MO - Stock Picks) to $75? National Oil Varco (NOV Quote - Cramer on NOV - Stock Picks) fully recovered from that last conference call. ... Apple (AAPL Quote - Cramer on AAPL - Stock Picks) and Google (GOOG Quote - Cramer on GOOG - Stock Picks) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG Quote - Cramer on ISRG - Stock Picks) getting jiggy off of covering because of FSLR -- momentum trades together. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Altria and Hewlett-Packard.Questions and Answers
Originally published on Feb. 14 at 10:14 a.m. EST Expiration havoc? Stocks that need to go down to the strike? Liz Claiborne's (LIZ Quote - Cramer on LIZ - Stock Picks) problems? Tech up too much? Bond insurers too confident in the face of the New York state government's worries about the muni side of things? Another round of number cuts for the brokers? These are the revolving questions that need to be asked. So let's work backwards. You will get no bottom in the brokers until all the analysts have cut numbers. They haven't yet. The group will remain under pressure as the last few join Opco, Keefe and Lehman in the number axe parade. Goldman (GS Quote - Cramer on GS - Stock Picks) hanging at $180 on expiration pressure may be not sustainable given more cuts ahead, but once they are out of the way, the group will bottom and that's the one that will hold and reverse. The denial of the bond insurers will be a way of life for as long as it takes for them to fail. They simply will never admit it until it is too late, and they are just trying to hold on for more rate cuts. They better get them, but their denial is amazing and will be in full display in Washington today. I would neither short nor go long the group. Tech's rally was a nonstarter to begin with. The group got so oversold it had no where to go but up for the moment. But we need some data points to keep it rallying and I don't see any. Liz is a joke, a poorly run situation that is trying to turn but has nothing going for it right now except a glimmer of hope. Jones (JNY Quote - Cramer on JNY - Stock Picks), on the other hand, has a plan and that's the casualty I would buy. I would not send J.C. Penney (JCP Quote - Cramer on JCP - Stock Picks) and Kohl's (KSS Quote - Cramer on KSS - Stock Picks) and the others down on this, but they are up, and it is a good excuse to take profits. Which brings us to the expiration. When you get a huge up Wednesday, you get a balance-out Thursday to correct the stocks that have blitzed too high. It will be interesting to watch because 12% of the S&P is oil and all of those stocks could trade to the next strike -- don't forget about the umbrella -- but at the same time, there are tons of stocks that should be halted here and turned back, like Verizon (VZ Quote - Cramer on VZ - Stock Picks) and AT&T (T Quote - Cramer on T - Stock Picks) -- I would key on them to watch this expiration. Random musings: Altria (MO Quote - Cramer on MO - Stock Picks) has almost always gone to a strike on expiration. This is an interesting tug of war today because it is in no man's land. I like that stock very much. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Altria and Goldman Sachs. |
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