Marek Fuchs
Maybe it's a warm week in the dead of winter that's put a skip in The Business Press Maven's step, but I'm handing out my coveted "Nod of Approval" award like confetti this week. There are an unprecedented three total winners. Even more surprising: I'm giving it out for use of statistics, which, as I pointed out in Friday's column, is usually a sore point in business media coverage.
There was a challenge with the way each of these statistics had to be used. But in the end, each statistic provokes a good deal of thought, which is all you can ask for in such circumstances. First up: Women's Wear Daily. My praise for this article goes against two tenets of Business Press Maven thought. I normally hesitate to look at traditionally reported numbers in new ways. That is the tool of those acting in self-interest. I'm even less likely to accept a new way to look at a traditionally reported number when a trade magazine proposes it. But sometimes in life, you have to give an exception to a rule -- or in this case two rules -- a chance. So although most of the reported January same-store sales numbers compared, of course, to last January's numbers, were a disappointment, WWD pointed out that they showed improvement over December numbers. In an economy that seems rudderless, this may be a good sign. It's worth noting, at any rate, and nodding in this case. Second up: The Wall Street Journal. I must admit to never even imagining breaking down credit card spending like this and, in the end, the Journal was not able to in any definite way. But look at this important observation, garnered from talking to the credit card companies. Unlike WWD's untraditional take, going sequentially on the months versus year-over-year, this one does not bode well for the economy: "Credit-card issuers won't disclose exact figures, but they say it is evident that a growing percentage of card volume is for basic purchases." Ouch. If people are increasingly using credit cards to foot the toilet paper bill and not indulge in luxuries, that is certainly a danger sign flashing red. Keep an eye on this statistic, especially if an intrepid reporter can get his mitts on some actual numbers. Finally, I must nod toward Housingwire.com, which pointed out a statistic that nearly had The Business Press Maven, a longtime bear on housing (even on the value of his own depreciating three-floor beauty) gasping for air. In an article wryly titled "Not Just a River in Egypt," Paul Jackson pointed out that 77% of Americans believe the value of their home increased or remained the same in 2007, a year in which we had the biggest price decline in generations. A majority say (we'll see, I doubt it) that they will spend the same amount on home improvements this year. The survey may mean everything from the fact that human nature allows for delusional self-interested view of reality (my take) to the reflection that Americans are staying in their homes, so they haven't realized that their values are falling like an anvil. Paul Jackson ends with a good piece of speculation about the numbers and leaves the reader wanting more. It's the sort of good thought on statistics that is infrequently seen in the business media. Wrote Jackson:"I would have loved to have seen borrowers asked about other people's homes in addition to their own; I suspect an interesting divergence would have appeared, showing that homeowners understand that prices are falling, but that they perceive the decline isn't as bad in their particular street or neighborhood."Interestingly enough, The Business Press Maven, writing as his alter ego, the mild mannered reporter Marek Fuchs, wrote a front-page Real Estate section story in The New York Times a few years back, which was literally adorned with bubbles, about the people's belief that their cul-de-sac or brownstone effectively had an electromagnetic field of protection around it, one that kept it magically safe from any downturns.
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