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Conference Calls: The Good, the Bad, the Misunderstood

01/02/08 - 12:00 PM EST

Scott Rothbort

To the uninitiated, it looked like some profit-taking profit-taking. Yet the 7% premarket selloff sell-off was more than just profit-taking. It was an implosion. But what caused it?

To begin with, Costco made its new highs and broke out technically technical-analysis in the days leading up to its earnings release. This attracted momentum investors momentum-investing to the stock.

However, momentum investors will flee at the first sign of trouble. All that's usually needed is a little push. Thanks to the ever-pervasive hedge fund hedge-fund community, Costco got that push. Rumors of disappointing gross margins gross-margin were being spread rapidly. But this negativity did not align with reality. All that a Costco investor needed to have was some patience to wait a few hours to listen to management on the conference call.

On the Dec. 13 call, Costco management provided a detailed analysis of gross margins by product, department and reporting periods. Looking forward, the company provided a positive outlook (or "guidance") for future gross margin growth.

However, Costco's naysayers shot first and asked questions later (i.e., they sold immediately). And that was a mistake. Costco closed at $70.19 the day before the earnings release, traded as low as $65.10 early the day of the earnings release, and closed at $68.54 that day. Subsequent to that day, shares of Costco have traded higher. (See No. 1 in "Five Missteps to Avoid During Season.")

You can listen to an archive of this call on TheStreet.com -- click here.

Good: Apple, Research In Motion and Dick's Sporting Goods

It's hard to say which one of last quarter's good conference calls can be regarded as the best (because there are several really good ones). However, three calls do stand out in my mind: Apple AAPL, Research In Motion RIMM and Dick's Sporting Goods DKS. All of these companies' quarterly reports and earnings conference calls delivered affirmation to the bulls bull-market.

Here a few characteristics that each of these calls shared:

  • Reported better-than-expected results for the most recent quarter.
  • Provided robust guidance for the upcoming quarter.
  • Quelled any concerns regarding issues that may have lingered with the naysayers, particularly that these companies would be adversely affected by a slowing consumer or economy.
  • Demonstrated opportunities for continued future growth.
  • Caught the short-sellers short-interest off guard, with stocks spiking significantly the day after the earnings announcements.
At the time of publication, Rothbort was long COST, AAPL, RIMM and DKS, and was stock and calls for MER, although positions can change at any time.

Scott Rothbort has over 20 years of experience in the financial services industry. In 2002, Rothbort founded LakeView Asset Management, LLC, a registered investment advisor based in Millburn, N.J., which offers customized individually managed separate accounts, including proprietary long/short strategies to its high net worth clientele.

Immediately prior to that, Rothbort worked at Merrill Lynch for 10 years, where he was instrumental in building the global equity derivative business and managed the global equity swap business from its inception. Rothbort previously held international assignments in Tokyo, Hong Kong and London while working for Morgan Stanley and County NatWest Securities.

Rothbort holds an MBA in finance and international business from the Stern School of Business of New York University and a BS in economics and accounting from the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania. He is a Professor of Finance and the Chief Market Strategist for the Stillman School of Business of Seton Hall University.

For more information about Scott Rothbort and LakeView Asset Management, LLC, visit the company's Web site at www.lakeviewasset.com. Scott appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.


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