Google Can't Change the Game

Prediction: Google (GOOG) and the Federal Communications Commission will throw a bring-your-own-device party to ring in an era of open wireless standards, but no one will show up.

About 266 would-be bidders have signed up for the FCC's 700-megahertz auction next month. That list will quickly dwindle down to a handful of earnest winners like AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), EchoStar (DISH), maybe Google, and possibly Qualcomm (QCOM). Those licensees will control some of the best radio waves to come around in decades.

The property is enormous -- it previously handled 18 channels of UHF analog TV broadcasts but was cleared out when broadcasters went digital. And it's also robust: Strong signals on this frequency can penetrate deep inside buildings.

Industry observers see the spectrum as the future of wireless and a gateway to a fourth-generation network technology such as WiMax or LTE, which can deliver broadband speeds to mobile users.

To avoid squandering this huge resource, or more specifically, to prevent this once-in-a-lifetime radio wave opportunity from falling exclusively into the hands of the telcos, Google and others urged regulators to create some guidelines. Promising a minimum bid of $4.6 billion in the 700 MHz auction, Google got the FCC to guarantee that the winner of the licenses must allow devices from other companies to operate on the new networks.