Calling the Iowa Trifectas

The position hurting him the most in Iowa is immigration, because McCain supported the president's reform plan. Rep. Tommy Tancredo (R., Colo.) entered the race solely to get the focus on illegal immigration. Tancredo succeeded and managed to wreck McCain's campaign over the summer. After pulling out of the race last week, Tancredo endorsed Romney, so that puts McCain out of third place.

So that leaves me with a second surprise. I see Ron Paul coming in third place in the Iowa caucus, moving up from a fifth place finish in the straw poll. Paul picked up many defectors to do well in the trial run in August, and his position has only strengthened. His campaign has raised almost $19 million this quarter. His campaign has hit the airwaves in Iowa with a message of liberty and small government.

Say what you want about Paul, but one must pay attention to his supporters. They care. Paul's supporters have organized incredible fundraising that has other campaigns drooling with envy. Not only do Paul supporters show up with cash, we also know that they turn out for events. He has shown superlative results in straw polls across the country.

We'll see how my surprise picks -- Edwards to win the Democratic race and Paul to show in the GOP derby -- come out next Thursday.

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