Calling the Iowa Trifectas

Edwards has several other advantages. He has much of his organization from 2004 intact, and he remains a stronger force in rural Iowa. Furthermore, Iowa has also tended heavily to support white males in elections (see the state's entirely white male congressional delegation).

Edwards' history underscores a disadvantage both Clinton and Obama have to overcome. They will rely heavily on first-time caucus goers to show up and then vote for them. Will they come? This is a big question, but history tells us that you don't want to rely upon soft support.

Given these factors, I believe Edwards will rally from behind and barely nudge out Clinton to win the caucus. It will be close, and Clinton could garner enough women to come out on top. Obama will finish in third place. The rest of the Democratic field will be dropping out of the race after Iowa and New Hampshire.

The Republican side of the Iowa caucus remains less interesting at the top. The straw poll in August offered some very important revelations. Mitt Romney could buy his way to the top, but voters felt free to changes sides, and they most often moved to either Mike Huckabee or Rep. Ron Paul (R., Tex.).

The Huckabee surge has continued. The RealClearPolitics average has him leading Romney 29.2 to 25.5. Four other candidates -- Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain -- remain in a statistical dead heat hovering around 10%. It bears noting that the Iowa GOP has no viability rule like the Democrats.