Calling the Iowa Trifectas

We're down to the last week before voting begins in the 2008 campaign at the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3. The candidates keep scrambling to make their last few appearances in the Hawkeye state, and their commercials cover the airwaves.

In the final stretch, the contest has tightened, but today, I give you my predictions for placing a trifecta bet on this horse race -- the top three finishers on the Democratic and Republican side -- with a couple of surprise finishers.

The Democratic caucus nominally comes down to the top three candidates. RealClearPolitics.com keeps a running average of polls from Iowa. Presently, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D., N.Y.) leads with 29.2; Sen. Barack Obama (D., Ill.) stands second with 27.3; John Edwards trails in third with 23.5.

But the supporters of the minor candidates will play a major role in deciding who wins, because in the Democratic caucus rules a candidate needs 15% to 25% (depending on the viability formula but assume 15%) of attendees in that voting location in order to caucus. Sen. Chris Dodd (D., Conn.), Sen. Joe Biden (D., Del.), Gov. Bill Richardson (D., N.M.) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D, Ohio) all poll below 10 percentage points in Iowa, so their supporters will have to make a decision when they have to switch.

In 2004, Kucinich made a deal with Edwards to caucus together. I would guess that Edwards again can count on the support of the more progressive wing of the Democratic party. But what about supporters of Biden, Dodd and Richardson? All of the polls show that Edwards becomes the second-place choice for many caucus goers. This would result in Edwards picking up several percentage points that fail to show up in the headline poll numbers.