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10 Ways to Improve Your Market-Timing

12/21/07 - 01:34 PM EST

Alan Farley

  1. Sell Rallies: Stop selling short sell-short into selloffs sell-off. Instead, wait for weak rallies rally to fail at resistance. Then use the breakdown of a two- or three-day topping pattern to enter your position.
  2. Play Pullbacks: Pullbacks work in all kinds of market conditions, so use them to take on all kinds of exposure. Stand aside when a new trend gets under way and stalk the chart until a counterswing forces price back to the level where you wanted to play it in the first place.
  3. Enter in Quiet Times: The best time to enter a position is just before a breakout breakout or breakdown. That way you can sell your position for a nice profit after other traders trip over themselves to get on board. Find these setup points using narrow range and volatility contraction patterns, like Wednesday's [Dec. 3, 2007] NR7 (narrowest range bar of the last seven bars) on Intuitive Surgical (ISRG - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr).
  4. Click here for larger image.

  5. Follow the VIX: The most profitable trades show up when the crowd is leaning the wrong way. How can you see this happen in advance? Become a student of sentiment and track the Market Volatility Index (VIX - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) for reversals after sharp peaks and valleys.
  6. Keep Sector Lists: A rising market floats all boats, even the leakiest ones. But in tough times, it's wise to play the strongest stocks in the strongest market groups. To this end, keep sector sector lists that show relative performance on a weekly basis, and then limit your trade search to the cream of the crop.
  7. Mark the Gaps: Watch the gaps on the major indices -index and assume every one will fill, sooner or later. Avoid aggressive trade entry after a gap unless the market is in a running trend. Expect indices to turn on a dime as soon as a gap gets filled because smart traders use these pivot points to take profits and establish contrary positions.
  8. Match Time to Opportunity: Decide your holding period before you enter the trade, and then stick to it. Are you scalping, daytrading day-trader, swing trading or picking up an investment for the grandkids? Keep separate trading accounts brokerage-account if you want to do all of the above.
  9. Exit in Wild Times: Take profits in high volatility volatility, whenever possible. Prices move through relatively narrow boundaries most of the time. Wide swings, triggered by greed or fear, open the floodgates and let the market move very big distances over short timeframes. Use these magic moments to book your profits and jump back to the sidelines.
  10. Click here for larger image.

  11. Track the Pivot Points: Focus your attention on prior highs and lows, whether they're two days old or printed in the last decade. Traders use these focal points to make the majority of their entry and exit decisions. Learn to wait for the second test of a high or low, rather than jumping in too soon and getting stuck in a double-top or bottom reversal.
  12. Read the Tape: The numbers on your trading screen are far more important than the pretty pictures they draw on the charts. Memorize key levels on your favorite stocks and then watch what happens whenever price approaches one of these inflection points. Yes, tape-reading takes years to learn, but it gives you a lifetime edge, so it's worth the effort.

This column was originally published on RealMoney. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.

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At the time of publication, Farley had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Alan Farley is a professional trader and author of The Master Swing Trader. Farley also runs a Web site called HardRightEdge.com, an online resource for trading education, technical analysis and short-term investment strategies. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Farley appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email. Also, click here to sign up for Farley's premium subscription product The Daily Swing Trade brought to you exclusively by TheStreet.com.

TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Trader's Library under which it receives a portion of the revenue from purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.


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