Investing Opinion

Kass: 20 Takeaways From the Fed's Move

 

11. More will come to realize (as I have forecast for some time) that a rebound in housing will not occur until 2010 at the earliest -- and that housing's negative multiplier effect will be profoundly felt in lower domestic growth and profits.

12. Consumer confidence, personal consumption, business spending intentions and housing activity will take a new leg down in the months ahead.

13. Look for a bear market and the disintermediation of hedge funds and in the fund-of-funds community, which will serve to disrupt the equity markets and cause even greater volatility.

14. Additional writedowns will weigh on our financial institutions in early 2008. They are value traps!

15. The credit markets will seize up further, which will lead to the collapse of several monoline insurers that serve the housing industry and a failure of a major publicly owned homebuilder.

16. Citigroup (C), the bank that can't shoot straight, will likely trade back under $30.

17. Sentiment should abruptly shift to the negative, to levels not seen in modern financial history.

18. Private equity deals will slow to a standstill.

19. The U.S. dollar has become cheap relative to other currencies.

20. Cuts in 2008 GDP forecasts and corporate profit estimates are imminent.

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

At time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were short Citigroup, although holdings can change at any time.

Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Short Offshore Fund, Ltd.

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