Today's Short-Squeeze Plays: CONN

12/11/07 - 02:12 PM EST

Jason Raznick

Concerns over the U.S. subprime crisis have weighed on investor sentiment, sending many high-quality stocks down and creating potential short-squeeze trading opportunities. The short-interest short-interest ratio (or simply the short ratio) is a measure of a stock's short position divided by the average daily volume. In other words, it is a measure of the number of days it would take short-sellers to cover their entire positions if the share price begins to appreciate.

A short squeeze is a phenomenon that takes place when the share price of a shorted stock appreciates, sending short-sellers scrambling to cover their bearish positions. When we're looking for potential short-squeeze plays, we look for companies that have a short ratio above 20, a P/E/G of less than 1.5 and a market cap over $250 million. (You can see the rest of the Top Short-Squeezes on Stockpickr.

One heavily shorted stock is Conn's (CONN Quote - Cramer on CONN - Stock Picks). The specialty retailer of home appliances and consumer electronics has a short ratio of 70.9, with 61.32% of the float shorted.

The company missed Wall Street expectations, both on reported earnings, as well as on guidance. Third-quarter earnings slid to $4 million, or 17 cents a share, from $7.2 million, or 30 cents a share, a year ago. The company has a price/earnings (P/E) of 13.33 and a P/E/G ratio of 1.03.

Conn's repurchased 542,100 shares of common stock for $12 million in the quarter ended Oct. 31. Under the current buyback plan, the company has repurchased a total of 1,041,185 shares for $24.5 million and will continue to buy back shares until it reaches the total authorization of $50 million.

Conn's has negligible debt, with a debt-equity ratio of 0.31, as of Oct. 31, as compared to rival Wal-Mart's (WMT Quote - Cramer on WMT - Stock Picks) 1.61. Morgan Keegan, which has a market perform rating on Conn's, reduced its earnings estimates in a recent note, citing the decline in the company's margins and rise in its inventory levels.

If Conn's has a good holiday season and reports better-than-expected numbers, a short-covering rally could take place.

At the time of publication, Raznick had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.

Jason Raznick is president of Easy Stock Alerts and has been involved with the capital markets for several years. He has worked for Merrill Lynch, Dynamis and Tricap Holdings, a joint venture with Fortress Investment Group. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Raznick appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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